Daily Commodities Market Recap and Technical Analysis

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TRADING THE PRECIOUS METALS

August gold closed lower on Monday and above he 20-day moving average crossing at 672.80 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 682.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 666.80 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.

July silver closed slightly lower on Monday as it consolidates some of last week's rally but remains above trendline resistance crossing near 13.673. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends last week's rally, April's high crossing at 14.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 13.252 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.

July copper closed higher on Monday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 343.87 confirming that a low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the reaction high crossing at 369.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 334.00 would temper the near- term friendly outlook.
 

TRADING FOOD & FIBER

July coffee closed lower on Monday and below the 38% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 115.68. The low- range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends last week's rally, the 50% retracement level crossing at 119.52 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.29 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted.

July cocoa closed lower on Monday as it extended last week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this Monday's decline, May's low crossing at 17.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 19.11 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.

July sugar closed sharply lower on Monday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.05. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends Monday's decline, May's low crossing at 8.62 is the next downside target.

July cotton closed lower on Monday and below the 10-day moving average crossing at 50.32. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 49.48 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the March-May decline crossing at 52.25 is the next upside target.

TRADING GRAINS

July corn closed down 3-cents at 3.83 3/4.

July corn closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of last week's rally. The market remains concerned about the potential for dryness in the Southeast to move into the Ohio River Valley and the rest of the eastern Midwest, which helped to limit today's decline. Rain in the forecasts for the next two weeks over northern and western areas of the Corn Belt, with some ridging noted over the eastern half of the U.S., starting this weekend. Japan, Taiwan and South Korea all appear to be short- bought for the summer, which should lead to buy dips in the market. Monday's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible near-term. Closes above May's high crossing at 3.96 1/2 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of this spring's trading range. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.73 1/4 would confirm that last week's short covering rally has ended.

July wheat closed down 1/2-cent at 5.20 1/4.

July wheat closed fractionally lower on Monday as it consolidated some of last week's rally but not before spiking above April's high crossing at 5.30. Dry weather remains a concern in Russian and the Ukraine along with quality concerns in the Southern Plains limited today's losses. Nevertheless, the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near- term. Closes above April's high crossing at 5.30 would open the door for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 5.57 later this summer. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.97 3/4 would confirm that a double top with April's high has been posted.

July Kansas City Wheat closed down 2 3/4-cents at 5.04 3/4.

July Kansas City Wheat closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of last week's rally, which led to a spike above April's high crossing at 5.18. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If July extends last week's rally, February's high crossing at 5.27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.87 1/4 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

 

TRADING LIVESTOCK

July hogs closed up $0.22 at $75.37.

July hogs closed higher on Monday as it extended this week's rally and closed above the reaction high crossing at 75.35 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends Monday's rally, the reaction high crossing at 76.55 is the next upside target.

July bellies closed down $2.50 at $96.20.

July bellies closed lower on Friday and below the 75% retracement level of this winter's rally crossing at 98.28. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower trading is possible near-term. If July extends this spring's decline, the 87% retracement level of this winter's rally crossing at 93.99 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 100.99 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.

August cattle closed unchanged at 90.67.

August cattle closed unchanged on Monday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near- term. If August extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 90.10 is the next downside target. From a broad perspective, August cattle are locked in a trading range. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 94.80 or below 90.10 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market.

August feeder cattle closed up $0.77 at $111.02.

August Feeder cattle posted an inside day with a higher close on Monday as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 108.90 is the next downside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 108.90 are needed to confirm a downside breakout of this spring's trading range. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.10 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

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